Should Gas-Powered Cars Be Banned By 2035?

California is seeking to ban the sale of new gas-powered motor vehicles by 2035. Is that a good idea? My goal here is to sketch relevant considerations.

1. Suppose, counterfactually, that electric cars are identical to gas-powered cars in every way, except that they are electric and do not emit air pollutants (including greenhouse gases). Suppose that consumers like them equally and could not distinguish between them and that they cost the same. With those assumptions (and unless we introduce other considerations, see 7 below): If we could push a button and make every car electric, we would be strongly inclined to do that. (See also 8 below.)

2. Suppose, counterfactually, that both electric cars and gas-powered cars do not impose externalities - no air pollution, no greenhouse gases. If so, we should be inclined to leave the choice between electric cars and gas-powered cars to the market, perhaps with some nudging in favor of electric cars if consumers would save money and time if they bought them (see 8 below).

3. The upshot of (1) is that it is essential to know about the costs associated with banning the sale of gas-powered cars. Some of those costs are economic: How much more will electric cars cost, if anything? Some of those costs involve time and subjective experience (consumer welfare effects): Will consumers like electric cars? Will they spend a lot of time looking for charging stations? Projecting full answers by 2035 may not be so simple. (Note as well that if it is cheaper to drive, we should see more driving, which might decrease the environmental benefits of electric cars, because more electricity will be used.)

4. If electric cars are expensive (some people expect price parity by 2035 or well before), and/or if some or many consumers do not like electric cars, a ban on the sale of new gas-powered vehicles will affect both the sale of new cars and the used car market. People will keep their gas-powered cars on the roads longer. Used gas-powered cars will be in demand (and so cost more). What is the magnitude of these effects? It would be good to know.