What Are We In the Midst Of?

Ten possibilities

When you are in the midst of something, or in its early stages, it’s often hard to know what you are in the midst of.

I know someone, stricken with cancer and facing a lot of uncertainty about what would happen, who said something like this: “I don’t know what narrative I am in.”

That can be true for good things too, such as a romance. Will it fizzle?

What is the United States in the midst of? What will they think, in say fifteen years, that we were in the midst of, way back in early 2025?

Here’s another way to put it: What are the ultimate goals? What would success really look like, to those who like or are thrilled by what we are in the midst of?

There is also the question: Suppose that we are in the midst of something - say, a switch from A to B. How enduring will that be? An agency is abolished in 2025. Will it return by 2040?

All this is really hard to know. Here are ten candidates. (Note 1: Consider this a work-in-progress, a predraft draft. Note 2: I am aiming to keep this emotionally flat and purely descriptive. Note 3: Some of these would require actions/decisions by the Supreme Court. Note 4: There isn’t much here on the international side. Note 5: Some people, enthusiastic or unenthusiastic about what we are in the midst of, might think the list is too tepid and cautious, and that we are in the midst of more and bigger. Maybe. Note 6: Of course the list is incomplete. Comments are welcome on additions.)

1. A significant increase in the power of the president. Very likely, but what does this mean? (a) Power to fire the heads of the independent agencies, like the FCC and the Federal Reserve. (b) Power to fire civil servants. (c) Power to fire everyone in the executive branch. (d) Impoundment authority. (e) Power to defy the courts (as the Vice President appears to have endorsed). (Unlikely, but worth watching.) (f) Power to abolish government agencies, unilaterally. (Also unlikely; but in practice?.)

2. A significant reduction in certain functions of the U.S. government. Abolition or scaling back of (say) the Department of Education, the Department of Energy, the CFPB, USAID, and the Environmental Protection Agency (etc.; how much etc.? how enduring?).

3. Much less immigration (obvs, as the kids say). One question is the extent to which, and the methods by which, illegal immigration can be stopped. Another question is: What happens to programs that create lawful pathways, like H-2B?

4. Less sludge. Much less in the way of administrative barriers and burdens, or frictions that make government work less well. TSA Pre for many things! Right now, this does not seem to be a focus. (Too small? Or too small-seeming?)

5. Reprisal against real or perceived political threats or enemies. Many people, including powerful people, including people who now run powerful institutions, including former public officials, are obviously worried about this. (They are silencing themselves or acting in certain ways because of that worry.) Criminal investigations? Criminal indictments? Will this become a pervasive thing?

6. Lower taxes, less regulation. That’s pretty easy. How much lower? We don’t know. But lower. (The taxes part has to come from Congress, mostly; to some extent, the same is true of regulation, though the president can do a ton.)